Mobile accounts for the majority of paid traffic and is disproportionately affected by slow page loads — mobile devices have less CPU and memory than desktop, so JavaScript-heavy pages that perform acceptably on desktop can be critically broken on mobile. Desktop recovered on April 23 when an engineering fix was deployed — but that fix was never applied to mobile. The result: desktop Quality Scores recovered while mobile continued to degrade, unseen.
The 28-day lag between the May 1 regression and the June 1 CPA collapse is explained by how Google collects CWV data. CrUX is a rolling 28-day average of real Chrome user sessions — it does not update instantly. For the first four weeks after the regression, the CrUX average was still partially weighted by clean pre-regression data, masking the true severity. By June 1, the window contained 28 full days of degraded mobile data, and Quality Scores collapsed across all markets simultaneously.
| Date | Event | Markets | Data signal | Hypothesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23 | Desktop CWV fixed | All | CPA stable. Desktop Quality Score begins recovering. | Fix applied to desktop branch only — mobile branch missed entirely. |
| May 1 | Code regression deployed | All | CPA appears calm. Mobile LCP/TBT/CLS all degrade silently. | CrUX has 28 days of clean data masking the damage. No visible signal yet in ads. |
| May 10 | Mother's Day switch-off | AU, US, CA, NZ | CPA drops — normal post-peak seasonal normalisation. | Budget reduction masks early CWV penalty. Appears campaign-driven, not technical. |
| May 11–14 | Flash sale (AU) | AU | AU CPA dips to ~$45–47 — flash sale conversion boost. | Promotional lift masks CWV penalty in AU specifically. Pages are broken while CPA looks healthy. |
| May 16 | Free PT Meta Melbourne live | AU | AU Meta CPM begins climbing. CPC also rising. | New spend on already-degraded mobile pages. CPM inflation partly driven by poor Meta relevance score. |
| May 18 | NCA campaign live | AU | AU CPA $49–53. Appears reasonable but masking CWV damage. | Launching into degraded mobile UX. Conversion data from this period is unreliable for future tCPA targets. |
| May 25 | Father's Day goes live | US, CA, UK | US/CA CPA climbing. CPM spiking. Zero GA4 conversions on FD page. | FD launches 4 days before full CrUX collapse. Landing page broken on mobile from launch day. |
| May 29 | CrUX 28d window closes | All | CPC/CPM both elevated. CPA about to collapse. | Google's rolling average now fully reflects degraded mobile CWV. Quality Scores drop across all landing pages. |
| Jun 1 | CPA collapse — all markets | All | US +51%, CA +39%, UK +29%, AU +14%, NZ +11% simultaneously. | Simultaneous multi-market, multi-platform spike. Definitively rules out creative, seasonal and bidding causes. |
| Jun 3 | Free PT Melbourne off | AU | AU CPA remains elevated at $62–69. | Campaign switch-off does not improve CPA — confirms driver is technical (CWV), not campaign spend. |